WEATHER INTELLIGENCE · OUTDOOR STAY

R395+F9 · the weather outlook

14 October–7 November 2026 · 30.8186875° N, 35.0584375° E
Updated 14 October 2026, 07:19 IDT

Next 7 days · daytime27–32°C

Central estimates for daily highs

Night / early morning18–22°C

Central estimates for daily lows

Rain ≥1 mm in a day2% max

Highest model-estimated daily probability; 7 days with rain data

Morning update · 14 October, 07:19 Israel time

The forecast for the next week has changed very little. The official heat warning has a new time window: 13:00–20:00 today. This update compares the same dates with the 01:47 snapshot from earlier this morning.

Heat warning: IMS issued yellow warning 144161 at 05:51 today. It covers the Arava, including this pin, from 13:00 to 20:00. The earlier notice covered 12:00–21:00 and was an early warning. Its absence from the new feed is not, by itself, proof of formal cancellation. Check the current official warnings.
Temperature: today’s main estimate remains about 32°C at the warmest time and 22°C at the coolest. From 15–20 October, daytime highs are around 27–29°C and night-time lows around 18–21°C. Compared with the earlier check, the first-week high and low estimates move by no more than 0.4°C.
Rain: most forecasts remain dry in the first week. The daily share of forecasts with at least 1 mm of rain stays below 2%. This is an estimate from computer forecasts, not a guarantee. The freshly checked 07:05 radar image shows no rain echo around the pin; nearby stations reported no rain in the 24 hours ending at 06:00.
Wind: typical forecast peak gusts in the first week are about 26–33 km/h. Individual forecasts remain higher: ICON reaches about 41 km/h around 18:00 today; GFS reaches about 42 km/h in gusts and 33 km/h in steadier wind around 03:00 tomorrow. ICON still shows a possible 50 km/h gust on 19 October. These are individual forecast peaks, not agreement across all sources. First-week central gust estimates changed by at most 2.5 km/h.
Regional rain maps: 26 six-hour ICON-IL/COSMO-IL panels leave the pin and nearby highlands to its west without rain shading through Saturday morning. The maps still use the 13 October 12 UTC runs: 24 overlapping images are unchanged, with two later panels now included. A separate COSMO rain feature lies mainly in Jordan. It has not been shown to be upstream of this pin. No current southern flood or storm notices appeared in the checked feeds; that does not rule out future flooding.
Later dates: the 29 October–4 November period still points broadly to highs around 27°C and lows around 17°C. The main total-rain estimate rose from 0.6 to 1.2 mm; the middle forecast range is now 0–7.8 mm. These are uncertain period totals from two model families, not a prediction of rain on a particular day. For 5–7 November, the main estimates are about 25°C by day and 16°C at night, with 0 mm central rain and a 0–4.8 mm middle range.
What was flagged: no first-week temperature, rain or wind change crossed our reporting thresholds. The only numerical flag was a fall in the 7 November share of forecasts with at least 0.2 mm rain, from about 25% to 12%. That is too far away for a reliable day-specific rain claim. UKMO coverage expanded to 22 October and WeatherNext coverage to 27 October, producing nine separate variable-coverage changes. These are changes in available evidence, not nine weather events.
Extended guidance: the morning ECMWF download returned the same 13 October 00 UTC cycle and identical chart. Fresh visual review still shows a slightly cooler weekly median for 19–25 October, then a modest warmer tilt into early November, with broad uncertainty. Near-normal rainfall anomalies do not mean zero rain. View the source chart.

All 18 configured products were retried; 16 returned usable forecasts. The two Australian ACCESS products remain unavailable and were not counted as dry or calm. Daily temperature coverage starts with 307 scenarios across six model families; gust coverage is smaller. Some sources share starting data. Four hundred independent aggregation checks found no discrepancies. Radar and chart findings are visual evidence, not measurements at the pin or a full catchment flood assessment.

What changed

Date	Measure	Before	Now	Source coverage
2026-11-07	rain p_0.2	24.9	12.0	same model coverage

9 date/variable combinations changed their available models or member counts; see the public data export. Such changes can shift a consensus without a forecast revision.

Daily outlook · detailed range

Bold is the family-balanced median; parentheses show the 10th–90th percentile model range. These are uncalibrated model estimates, not guaranteed limits. Rain probability refers to the whole local day; a model probability of 0% does not establish zero real-world risk.

Local date	Low °C	High °C	Rain ≥0.2 / ≥1 mm	Rain mm/day	Max wind km/h	Peak gust km/h	Gust ≥40	Families temp/gust
Wed 14 Oct	22 (19–23)	32 (29–34)	1% / <1%	0.0 (0.0–0.0)	15 (8–22)	26 (16–40)	9%	6/3
Thu 15 Oct	21 (18–22)	29 (27–31)	3% / 0%	0.0 (0.0–0.0)	17 (9–24)	33 (23–40)	10%	6/3
Fri 16 Oct	19 (16–20)	28 (26–29)	1% / 0%	0.0 (0.0–0.0)	15 (8–21)	26 (19–34)	0%	6/3
Sat 17 Oct	19 (16–20)	28 (26–29)	10% / 2%	0.0 (0.0–0.3)	15 (10–22)	26 (21–38)	7%	6/3
Sun 18 Oct	18 (15–20)	28 (26–30)	1% / <1%	0.0 (0.0–0.0)	18 (12–24)	32 (26–40)	11%	6/3
Mon 19 Oct	18 (14–20)	28 (26–30)	<1% / <1%	0.0 (0.0–0.0)	18 (13–25)	31 (26–40)	10%	6/3
Tue 20 Oct	18 (14–20)	27 (25–29)	4% / <1%	0.0 (0.0–0.0)	16 (9–23)	28 (23–39)	8%	6/3

Days 8–15 · lower confidence

Timing is increasingly uncertain. A narrower range or lower gust estimate can result from fewer available models, not improved certainty.

Local date	Low °C	High °C	Rain ≥0.2 / ≥1 mm	Rain mm/day	Max wind km/h	Peak gust km/h	Gust ≥40	Families temp/gust
Wed 21 Oct	18 (14–20)	27 (25–29)	6% / 2%	0.0 (0.0–0.0)	14 (7–23)	27 (20–39)	9%	5/3
Thu 22 Oct	18 (15–20)	28 (25–30)	10% / 4%	0.0 (0.0–0.3)	15 (7–23)	27 (19–38)	5%	5/3
Fri 23 Oct	19 (14–21)	28 (25–31)	9% / 3%	0.0 (0.0–0.0)	14 (8–24)	28 (21–38)	4%	4/2
Sat 24 Oct	19 (15–22)	28 (25–31)	9% / 2%	0.0 (0.0–0.0)	14 (8–21)	26 (17–40)	10%	4/2
Sun 25 Oct	19 (15–22)	28 (24–32)	13% / 3%	0.0 (0.0–0.6)	13 (7–21)	22 (12–29)	0%	4/1
Mon 26 Oct	19 (15–22)	28 (24–33)	9% / 3%	0.0 (0.0–0.0)	12 (7–20)	16 (11–28)	0%	4/1
Tue 27 Oct	20 (16–23)	28 (25–34)	12% / 8%	0.0 (0.0–0.6)	12 (7–18)	17 (12–24)	3%	4/1
Wed 28 Oct	18 (14–22)	27 (24–31)	14% / 8%	0.0 (0.0–0.6)	10 (6–18)	19 (11–32)	0%	2/1

Later dates · period outlook only

Do not use these dates for precise rain timing or tent-loading decisions. Temperature ranges describe the period-average daily low/high across ensemble scenarios; rain is the period total. Wind/gust is the greatest modeled value anywhere in the period.

Period	Avg low °C	Avg high °C	Total rain mm	Rain total ≥1 / ≥10 mm	Period peak gust km/h	Temp families
2026-10-29 → 2026-11-04	17 (15–20)	27 (23–30)	1.2 (0.0–7.8)	50% / 8%	32 (22–46)	ECCC,NOAA
2026-11-05 → 2026-11-07	16 (12–19)	25 (20–29)	0.0 (0.0–4.8)	24% / 6%	24 (19–31)	ECCC,NOAA

Wind and rain attention signals

Attention levels: sustained wind ≥30 km/h; gusts ≥40 km/h and ≥60 km/h. These are monitoring thresholds, not structural or equipment ratings. Individual models can show a useful warning signal even when the consensus is lower.

Date	Evidence	Variable	Signal
2026-10-18	Ensemble scenarios	gust	11% ≥40 km/h
2026-10-15	GFS deterministic	wind	33 km/h
2026-10-15	GFS deterministic	gust	42 km/h
2026-10-14	ICON deterministic	gust	41 km/h
2026-10-19	ICON deterministic	gust	50 km/h
2026-10-20	ICON deterministic	gust	42 km/h

Next 72 hours: stronger model events

Model	Local peak time	Variable	Modeled peak
GFS deterministic	2026-10-15T03:00:00+03:00	gust	42.1
GFS deterministic	2026-10-15T03:00:00+03:00	wind	32.6
ICON deterministic	2026-10-14T18:00:00+03:00	gust	40.7

Hour-by-hour guidance for the next 72 hours

Hourly output can be interpolated from 3- or 6-hourly source data. Precipitation and gust fields refer to the preceding hour; the temperature and wind fields refer to the stated time.

Local hour	Temperature °C	Rain ≥0.2 mm	Wind km/h	Gust km/h
2026-10-14T07:00:00+03:00	22 (20–24)	0%	5 (3–11)	7 (4–18)
2026-10-14T08:00:00+03:00	23 (21–24)	0%	4 (2–10)	8 (3–17)
2026-10-14T09:00:00+03:00	24 (22–25)	0%	4 (2–8)	9 (3–16)
2026-10-14T10:00:00+03:00	25 (24–26)	0%	4 (2–6)	10 (3–17)
2026-10-14T11:00:00+03:00	27 (25–28)	0%	4 (2–8)	10 (5–20)
2026-10-14T12:00:00+03:00	28 (27–30)	0%	6 (2–10)	11 (7–23)
2026-10-14T13:00:00+03:00	30 (28–32)	0%	6 (2–12)	15 (9–25)
2026-10-14T14:00:00+03:00	31 (28–33)	0%	6 (3–14)	19 (9–28)
2026-10-14T15:00:00+03:00	32 (29–34)	0%	6 (2–16)	23 (9–31)
2026-10-14T16:00:00+03:00	32 (29–34)	1%	8 (3–16)	24 (12–34)
2026-10-14T17:00:00+03:00	31 (28–33)	1%	10 (4–18)	24 (14–37)
2026-10-14T18:00:00+03:00	30 (28–31)	1%	12 (5–20)	22 (16–39)
2026-10-14T19:00:00+03:00	28 (26–30)	<1%	11 (5–19)	18 (12–36)
2026-10-14T20:00:00+03:00	27 (24–28)	<1%	9 (4–15)	11 (6–29)
2026-10-14T21:00:00+03:00	26 (22–27)	<1%	7 (3–14)	6 (4–24)
2026-10-14T22:00:00+03:00	25 (21–26)	0%	6 (3–15)	8 (4–20)
2026-10-14T23:00:00+03:00	24 (21–26)	0%	7 (3–16)	9 (4–22)
2026-10-15T00:00:00+03:00	24 (20–25)	0%	8 (4–18)	10 (5–31)
2026-10-15T01:00:00+03:00	23 (20–24)	0%	9 (5–18)	13 (7–35)
2026-10-15T02:00:00+03:00	23 (19–24)	0%	9 (5–19)	18 (7–35)
2026-10-15T03:00:00+03:00	22 (19–24)	0%	10 (5–20)	22 (6–39)
2026-10-15T04:00:00+03:00	22 (19–23)	0%	10 (4–20)	22 (5–37)
2026-10-15T05:00:00+03:00	22 (18–23)	0%	9 (4–19)	23 (5–33)
2026-10-15T06:00:00+03:00	22 (18–23)	0%	9 (4–17)	23 (5–30)
2026-10-15T07:00:00+03:00	22 (19–23)	0%	8 (4–15)	20 (7–27)
2026-10-15T08:00:00+03:00	23 (20–24)	0%	8 (4–14)	15 (8–24)
2026-10-15T09:00:00+03:00	24 (22–25)	0%	7 (3–14)	13 (8–21)
2026-10-15T10:00:00+03:00	25 (23–26)	0%	7 (3–13)	13 (10–20)
2026-10-15T11:00:00+03:00	26 (24–27)	0%	7 (4–13)	16 (12–21)
2026-10-15T12:00:00+03:00	27 (25–28)	0%	9 (4–14)	18 (12–23)
2026-10-15T13:00:00+03:00	28 (26–29)	0%	10 (4–15)	21 (13–25)
2026-10-15T14:00:00+03:00	29 (27–30)	0%	11 (4–17)	23 (14–28)
2026-10-15T15:00:00+03:00	29 (27–31)	0%	13 (5–18)	24 (16–30)
2026-10-15T16:00:00+03:00	29 (27–30)	<1%	14 (6–19)	26 (17–33)
2026-10-15T17:00:00+03:00	28 (26–30)	<1%	14 (6–20)	25 (16–35)
2026-10-15T18:00:00+03:00	27 (25–28)	<1%	14 (8–21)	23 (14–36)
2026-10-15T19:00:00+03:00	26 (24–27)	0%	13 (7–19)	20 (14–34)
2026-10-15T20:00:00+03:00	25 (22–26)	0%	11 (6–18)	17 (10–30)
2026-10-15T21:00:00+03:00	24 (21–25)	0%	9 (5–16)	14 (8–26)
2026-10-15T22:00:00+03:00	23 (20–24)	0%	7 (4–15)	12 (5–21)
2026-10-15T23:00:00+03:00	22 (19–23)	0%	7 (4–14)	9 (5–17)
2026-10-16T00:00:00+03:00	21 (18–22)	0%	8 (4–13)	9 (5–13)
2026-10-16T01:00:00+03:00	21 (18–22)	0%	8 (4–12)	9 (4–12)
2026-10-16T02:00:00+03:00	20 (18–22)	0%	7 (4–12)	8 (5–14)
2026-10-16T03:00:00+03:00	20 (17–21)	0%	7 (3–12)	8 (4–16)
2026-10-16T04:00:00+03:00	20 (17–21)	0%	6 (3–12)	7 (4–16)
2026-10-16T05:00:00+03:00	19 (16–20)	0%	6 (2–11)	8 (3–16)
2026-10-16T06:00:00+03:00	19 (16–21)	0%	6 (2–10)	8 (3–16)
2026-10-16T07:00:00+03:00	20 (17–21)	0%	5 (2–10)	8 (3–15)
2026-10-16T08:00:00+03:00	21 (19–22)	0%	5 (2–9)	8 (4–15)
2026-10-16T09:00:00+03:00	22 (20–23)	0%	5 (2–8)	10 (5–15)
2026-10-16T10:00:00+03:00	23 (22–24)	0%	4 (2–8)	11 (7–16)
2026-10-16T11:00:00+03:00	25 (23–26)	0%	5 (2–9)	13 (7–18)
2026-10-16T12:00:00+03:00	26 (24–27)	0%	5 (2–10)	15 (7–21)
2026-10-16T13:00:00+03:00	27 (25–28)	0%	6 (3–11)	17 (8–22)
2026-10-16T14:00:00+03:00	28 (26–29)	0%	8 (3–12)	18 (9–26)
2026-10-16T15:00:00+03:00	28 (26–29)	0%	10 (4–14)	21 (11–29)
2026-10-16T16:00:00+03:00	28 (26–29)	<1%	11 (4–16)	20 (13–31)
2026-10-16T17:00:00+03:00	27 (25–28)	<1%	13 (6–18)	20 (13–33)
2026-10-16T18:00:00+03:00	26 (24–27)	<1%	13 (7–20)	21 (12–34)
2026-10-16T19:00:00+03:00	25 (23–26)	0%	13 (6–19)	20 (10–32)
2026-10-16T20:00:00+03:00	24 (22–24)	0%	13 (5–19)	21 (9–29)
2026-10-16T21:00:00+03:00	22 (20–24)	0%	11 (4–19)	20 (7–28)
2026-10-16T22:00:00+03:00	22 (19–23)	0%	10 (4–18)	17 (5–24)
2026-10-16T23:00:00+03:00	21 (19–22)	0%	8 (2–16)	13 (4–21)
2026-10-17T00:00:00+03:00	20 (18–22)	0%	8 (3–14)	10 (3–18)
2026-10-17T01:00:00+03:00	20 (18–21)	0%	8 (3–13)	10 (3–16)
2026-10-17T02:00:00+03:00	20 (18–20)	0%	7 (4–11)	9 (4–16)
2026-10-17T03:00:00+03:00	19 (18–20)	0%	7 (4–11)	8 (3–17)
2026-10-17T04:00:00+03:00	19 (18–20)	<1%	7 (3–10)	9 (5–17)
2026-10-17T05:00:00+03:00	19 (17–20)	<1%	6 (3–10)	9 (4–19)
2026-10-17T06:00:00+03:00	19 (17–20)	<1%	6 (3–10)	9 (5–21)
2026-10-17T07:00:00+03:00	20 (18–21)	<1%	6 (3–9)	9 (4–20)

Deterministic cross-check: next 7 days

Model	Date	Low °C	High °C	Wind km/h	Gust km/h
IFS HRES	2026-10-14	21.0	32.5	16.8	28.4
IFS HRES	2026-10-15	20.6	29.1	20.0	34.9
IFS HRES	2026-10-16	17.1	28.9	20.0	34.6
IFS HRES	2026-10-17	17.1	29.1	19.6	36.0
IFS HRES	2026-10-18	17.0	28.1	17.2	32.0
IFS HRES	2026-10-19	16.4	26.9	20.0	37.4
IFS HRES	2026-10-20	18.3	27.9	20.3	38.5
AIFS single	2026-10-14	22.6	33.1	12.9	—
AIFS single	2026-10-15	23.3	30.5	11.2	—
AIFS single	2026-10-16	20.8	29.2	12.0	—
AIFS single	2026-10-17	20.0	29.2	15.2	—
AIFS single	2026-10-18	20.1	29.3	16.5	—
AIFS single	2026-10-19	20.1	28.6	17.4	—
AIFS single	2026-10-20	19.2	27.7	15.2	—
GFS deterministic	2026-10-14	22.6	33.8	26.0	25.6
GFS deterministic	2026-10-15	21.3	28.5	32.6	42.1
GFS deterministic	2026-10-16	20.3	27.4	25.6	28.1
GFS deterministic	2026-10-17	19.3	27.2	27.1	27.0
GFS deterministic	2026-10-18	19.0	28.6	29.9	35.3
GFS deterministic	2026-10-19	18.8	28.7	27.2	36.4
GFS deterministic	2026-10-20	18.2	26.6	23.8	28.1
ICON deterministic	2026-10-14	22.1	32.4	25.3	40.7
ICON deterministic	2026-10-15	21.3	28.1	22.7	36.0
ICON deterministic	2026-10-16	18.6	27.1	22.1	39.6
ICON deterministic	2026-10-17	18.6	27.9	17.7	27.7
ICON deterministic	2026-10-18	17.4	28.6	23.7	39.2
ICON deterministic	2026-10-19	18.3	29.3	29.3	49.7
ICON deterministic	2026-10-20	19.4	28.3	24.9	42.1
UKMO deterministic	2026-10-14	20.8	28.9	9.4	19.1
UKMO deterministic	2026-10-15	19.9	28.1	24.8	37.1
UKMO deterministic	2026-10-16	17.9	27.2	17.3	28.4
UKMO deterministic	2026-10-17	16.7	26.5	8.6	19.1
UKMO deterministic	2026-10-18	17.0	27.7	12.2	26.3
UKMO deterministic	2026-10-19	16.6	28.4	13.3	28.8
GEM deterministic	2026-10-14	19.3	32.0	7.9	14.0
GEM deterministic	2026-10-15	18.3	30.5	9.4	15.1
GEM deterministic	2026-10-16	16.2	28.4	7.9	13.0
GEM deterministic	2026-10-17	16.0	28.3	9.0	16.2
GEM deterministic	2026-10-18	15.5	27.8	9.0	16.2
GEM deterministic	2026-10-19	14.5	27.2	11.5	21.2
GEM deterministic	2026-10-20	17.6	26.9	10.4	19.1
ARPEGE deterministic	2026-10-14	23.0	35.7	19.1	36.0
ARPEGE deterministic	2026-10-15	22.5	31.5	20.2	37.4
ARPEGE deterministic	2026-10-16	21.0	30.6	18.9	34.9
ARPEGE deterministic	2026-10-17	20.5	30.1	18.7	32.0
JMA deterministic	2026-10-14	22.8	31.6	15.5	—
JMA deterministic	2026-10-15	20.5	27.6	24.3	—
JMA deterministic	2026-10-16	19.0	27.2	15.3	—
JMA deterministic	2026-10-17	18.6	26.4	13.4	—
JMA deterministic	2026-10-18	18.6	27.4	18.3	—
JMA deterministic	2026-10-19	19.2	25.4	20.3	—
JMA deterministic	2026-10-20	18.5	25.2	16.2	—

Official IMS check

Snapshot: 14 Oct 2026 07:19 IDT. Official warnings · National forecast

The exact coordinate falls in the IMS Northern Arava warning region. The Dimona forecast point is about 28 km north of the event site.

Yellow warning for heat stress. This notice applies to the site’s IMS warning region.
Valid 14 Oct 2026 13:00 IDT to 14 Oct 2026 20:00 IDT.
Issued 14 Oct 2026 05:51 IDT; IMS notice 144161.

At this snapshot, the southern flood and storm warning feeds contained no entries. This is a current check only; it does not rule out later warnings or upstream flash floods.

A separate notice for poor visibility in mountain cloud or mist includes the Negev Mountain region (14 Oct 2026 06:00 IDT–14 Oct 2026 10:00 IDT). Its polygon does not contain the event coordinate; routes through that region may differ.

Nearby measured conditions

IMS hourly observation file · Distances are from the exact event coordinate. Ages below are measured at the snapshot time.

Station	Distance / elevation	Observed	Age	Temperature	Wind / hourly gust
Hazeva	17.8 km / -135 m	14 Oct 2026 06:00 IDT	80 min	25.6°C	8.3 / 16.6 km/h
Sede Boqer	25.8 km / 475 m	14 Oct 2026 06:00 IDT	80 min	19.6°C	4.7 / 10.1 km/h
Avdat	27.6 km / 555 m	14 Oct 2026 06:00 IDT	80 min	19.0°C	2.5 / 6.8 km/h
Mizpe Ramon	33.6 km / 845 m	14 Oct 2026 06:00 IDT	80 min	17.1°C	8.3 / 20.9 km/h

Hazeva is a low-lying Arava station; Sede Boqer and Avdat are plateau stations. These elevation differences matter. None measures the event site.

National forecast cross-check

Forecaster bulletin issued 14 Oct 2026 05:01 IDT. The wording below is a short paraphrase.

2026-10-14: Partial cloud cover. Warmer. Temperatures return toward typical seasonal values. Rain chances mainly in northern and coastal areas.
2026-10-15: Partial cloud cover. Cooler. Temperatures remain below typical seasonal values. Rain chances mainly in northern and coastal areas.
2026-10-16: Variable cloud cover, at times extensive. Cooler. Isolated thunderstorms possible.
2026-10-17: Variable cloud cover, at times extensive. Temperatures remain below typical seasonal values. Rain chances mainly in northern and coastal areas.

Nearby city forecasts are geographic proxies, not site measurements. Fresh six-hour XML issue: Wed Oct 14 06:08:40 IDT 2026; last valid time: 21 Oct 2026 03:00 IDT. The API’s older created fields appear to be database insertion dates; do not treat them as model initialization or rely on them to assess forecast freshness. Use the explicit XML issue time and model run time. Detailed forecasts do not extend beyond their published horizon.

Radar and regional rain maps

The freshly collected IMS radar frame, valid 14 October 07:05 IDT, shows no colored precipitation echo around the event coordinate or the nearby terrain to its west. Georeferenced pixel checks found no colored echo within approximately 20 km of the pin, nor in a larger surrounding image window. Echoes visible in the frame are well to the northwest. This is a radar-image finding, not a ground rainfall measurement.

All 26 freshly collected ICON-IL and COSMO-IL six-hour precipitation panels were reviewed, with accumulation periods ending from 14 October 06Z through 17 October 06Z (09:00 IDT). The site vicinity and adjacent Negev highlands to its west remain unshaded; modeled rain is concentrated offshore and later along northern/coastal areas, reaching toward the southwestern coast by Saturday morning. COSMO continues to show a separate localized rain band mainly east of the Arava in Jordan during the six hours ending 14 October 18Z (21:00 IDT), which ICON does not reproduce. These are still the 13 October 12Z model initializations: 24 overlapping panel files are byte-identical to the prior snapshot, while two newly included panels extend the review to 17 October 06Z. This is an updated review window, not a new regional-model run.

No clear rain signal is visible at the pin or in the nearby western highlands in these maps, but the review is qualitative and is not a delineated upstream-catchment or runoff assessment. In particular, the Jordanian COSMO rain feature has not been shown to lie upstream of this pin. Terrain, radar range and weak precipitation limit what an echo-free image can establish. The absence of an IMS flood warning or colored forecast shading cannot exclude a later flash flood; reassess with newer model runs, radar and official warnings.

Visual review: 14 Oct 2026 07:22 IDT. Findings refer only to images saved with this snapshot.

Latest radar frame: 14 Oct 2026 07:05 IDT. Original radar image

ICON - IL run 2026-10-13 12:00:00 UTC; available maps through 2026-10-17 06:00:00 UTC. IMS model maps

COSMO - IL run 2026-10-13 12:00:00 UTC; available maps through 2026-10-17 06:00:00 UTC. IMS model maps

ICON-IL uses approximately 2.5 km grid spacing and ECMWF boundary conditions, so it is not an independent global-model vote. Radar can miss weak precipitation or have coverage limits; an unshaded model map is a forecast, not an all-clear.

ICON six-hour precipitation frames reviewed

ICON forecast rain maps saved with this snapshot — Each panel shows the previous six hours of modeled precipitation, ending at its UTC label. Exact colors and positions are preserved in the original source PNGs in this snapshot.

COSMO six-hour precipitation frames reviewed

COSMO forecast rain maps saved with this snapshot — Each panel shows the previous six hours of modeled precipitation, ending at its UTC label. Exact colors and positions are preserved in the original source PNGs in this snapshot.

Extended outlook and historical context

ECMWF weekly guidance

Model initialized 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z; retrieved 2026-10-14T04:19:34.607430+00:00. Weekly anomalies are relative to ECMWF’s own model climate. They do not specify individual-day temperatures, rain timing or gusts.

Visual reading of this run: 19–25 October has a slightly cooler-than-normal weekly temperature median; 26 October–1 November and 2–8 November show a modest warm tilt. The temperature spread includes normal. Rainfall medians stay near zero anomaly, with a broader wetter upper tail later. This is qualitative guidance, not numerical point data extracted from pixels.

ECMWF subseasonal point meteogram with weekly temperature, precipitation and pressure distributions, initialized 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z — Each box is labelled at the end of its weekly interval. In the initial researched run, 9 November represents 2–8 November, extending one day past this report’s 7 November endpoint. The graphic identifies the selected model grid point; it can differ from the requested coordinates. Model-climate anomalies must not be added mechanically to the ERA5 baseline below.

What the season has historically been like

Climate reference, not a 2026 forecast. ERA5 reanalysis for 1991–2020 at the requested location shows a substantial cooling tendency from mid-October into early November. These estimates represent a coarse model grid with elevation processing, rather than a weather station at the exact point.

1991–2020 calendar-period averages
Dates	Mean daily high	Mean daily low	Historical daily highs, 10th–90th percentile
14–20 Oct	31.0°C	19.3°C	27.3–35.1°C
21–27 Oct	29.6°C	18.1°C	26.2–33.5°C
28 Oct–3 Nov	27.3°C	16.7°C	24.4–30.5°C
4–7 Nov	26.4°C	16.2°C	22.8–30.6°C

For the same 25 calendar days across those 30 years, total rain averaged 5.4 mm, with a median of 2.8 mm and a 10th–90th percentile range of 0.1–16.1 mm. At least one day with 1 mm or more occurred in 19 of 30 years. These historical frequencies are not the probability of rain this year. Local thunderstorms and runoff are poorly represented by a single coarse grid cell.

Historical daily maximum sustained model wind speed had a median of 12.7 km/h, with a 10th–90th percentile range of 8.5–17.3 km/h. These are background conditions, not current gust guidance; exposed ridges and channels can differ.

Source: ERA5 via Open-Meteo Historical Weather API. ERA5 grid centre 30.75°N, 35.00°E; 0.25° resolution; provider elevation 140 m. Daily boundaries are fixed UTC+3 throughout this cached dataset, not adjusted for historical daylight-saving changes. Percentiles describe past daily or period variability, not forecast confidence intervals.

Sources, freshness and reproducibility

Forecast retrieval: 14 October 2026 07:19 IDT. Coordinates: 30.8186875, 35.0584375. Open-Meteo elevation: about 140 m. Grid locations and elevations are recorded in the manifest.

Model / source data	Type	Family	Latest metadata init	Complete-day coverage	Status
IFS ensemble	ensemble	ECMWF	13 Oct 12:00 UTC	T through 2026-10-24; gust through 2026-10-24	used
AIFS ensemble	ensemble	ECMWF	13 Oct 12:00 UTC	T through 2026-10-27; gust unavailable	used
GEFS extended	ensemble	NOAA	13 Oct 18:00 UTC	T through 2026-11-07; gust through 2026-11-07	used
AIGEFS	ensemble	NOAA	13 Oct 06:00 UTC	T through 2026-10-28; gust unavailable	used
ICON ensemble	ensemble	DWD	13 Oct 12:00 UTC	T through 2026-10-20; gust unavailable	used
GEM ensemble	ensemble	ECCC	13 Oct 12:00 UTC	T through 2026-11-07; gust unavailable	used
MOGREPS ensemble	ensemble	UKMO	13 Oct 18:00 UTC	T through 2026-10-22; gust through 2026-10-22	used
WeatherNext 2	ensemble	Google	unavailable	T through 2026-10-27; gust unavailable	used
ACCESS ensemble (availability probe)	ensemble	BOM	26 Jun 18:00 UTC	—	excluded / unavailable
IFS HRES	forecast	ECMWF	13 Oct 18:00 UTC	T through 2026-10-27; gust through 2026-10-27	used
AIFS single	forecast	ECMWF	13 Oct 18:00 UTC	T through 2026-10-28; gust unavailable	used
GFS deterministic	forecast	NOAA	13 Oct 18:00 UTC	T through 2026-10-28; gust through 2026-10-28	used
ICON deterministic	forecast	DWD	13 Oct 18:00 UTC	T through 2026-10-20; gust through 2026-10-20	used
UKMO deterministic	forecast	UKMO	13 Oct 18:00 UTC	T through 2026-10-19; gust through 2026-10-19	used
GEM deterministic	forecast	ECCC	13 Oct 12:00 UTC	T through 2026-10-22; gust through 2026-10-22	used
ACCESS deterministic	forecast	BOM	26 Jun 18:00 UTC	—	excluded / unavailable
ARPEGE deterministic	forecast	MeteoFrance	14 Oct 00:00 UTC	T through 2026-10-17; gust through 2026-10-17	used
JMA deterministic	forecast	JMA	13 Oct 18:00 UTC	T through 2026-10-23; gust unavailable	used

Latest metadata timestamps are provider status, not proof that every horizon belongs to that one run. Rolling forecast APIs can combine current short-range output with earlier long-range runs. In particular, extended GEM guidance can come from an earlier extended cycle. Raw responses and metadata are retained; exact fixed-run attribution is not asserted.

Sensitivity to including AI models

Repeating the calculation using only the physical ensembles (IFS, GEFS, ICON, GEM and MOGREPS), the largest difference over available days 1–15 is 1.9°C in the central high, 1.7°C in the central low, 5.7 percentage points in daily ≥1 mm rain probability, and 0.0 percentage points in ≥40 km/h gust probability. These are method-sensitivity checks, not proof that either blend is more accurate. Additional method details appear below.

Method and practical limits

Each member is aggregated into local-day minima, maxima and rain totals before probabilities and quantiles are computed. Model variants share their family’s weight; available families receive equal weight. Deterministic forecasts are displayed separately.
Temperature, rain, wind and gusts use their own available family sets. Models without gusts do not count as calm. A full day is required for a daily statistic; missing values are never converted to zero.
These are family-balanced scenarios, not statistically independent votes. AI models, numerical models and national centers share data and sometimes initial conditions. In particular, Google WeatherNext 2 uses ECMWF initial conditions; Google is a model-family entry here, not an independent observational confirmation. A physical-model-only sensitivity comparison is provided. No local skill weighting or bias correction is claimed without adequate validation.
Local dates follow Asia/Jerusalem, including the 25-hour day on 25 October. Hourly rain and gust intervals ending at midnight belong to the preceding day.
Grid and interpolated point forecasts cannot resolve individual tents, gullies, exposed ridges or every convective shower. Nearby observations and official warnings supplement the models; they do not prove the weather at this exact pin.
Daily CSV includes long-range numerical diagnostics for audit only; the main report intentionally summarizes dates beyond 15 days as periods.
All forecast and reanalysis data accessed through Open-Meteo are credited to their originating centers and Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0). See ensemble documentation and metadata documentation.